There is a particular kind of pressure that comes with playing the first game of a massive double-header. Win, and you hand the problem to your rivals. Drop points, and suddenly the evening fixture becomes irrelevant for all the wrong reasons.
That is exactly the situation Barcelona find themselves in on Sunday. Kick off at 1pm at the Spotify Camp Nou against Rayo Vallecano — a team sitting 13th in La Liga and who have not won an away game since October. On paper, it should be comfortable. In practice, nothing involving Rayo ever truly is.
**Why this matters more than it looks**
Barcelona go into Sunday four points clear of Real Madrid at the top of La Liga. Win, and they go seven points clear — before Real Madrid even kick off against Atlético in the evening. That is the kind of cushion that changes the psychological dynamics of a title race. It puts Arbeloa's side under enormous pressure in the Derbi, knowing that even a win only cuts the gap to four. A draw or defeat at the Bernabéu, and Barcelona head into the international break with a potentially decisive advantage.
Hansi Flick knows this. The priority is total, absolute focus on the job in front of them. Get the three points, then watch what happens later.
**Barcelona's form makes them heavy favourites**
The numbers back it up. Barcelona have won all 14 of their home La Liga matches this season, scoring an average of 2.75 goals per game. They are on an 18-match unbeaten run at Camp Nou. They have scored in every home game this season. In the Champions League just days ago, they demolished Newcastle 7-2 — a performance featuring Raphinha at his devastating best, two goals and two assists in a display that reminded everyone what this attack looks like when it clicks.
Raphinha is the man in form. A hat-trick against Sevilla last weekend, then that UCL masterclass. Robert Lewandowski scored twice against Newcastle too. Lamine Yamal continues to produce moments that leave defenders frozen. When Barcelona attack with freedom, they are the most exciting team in Europe right now.
**The injury picture**
Flick goes into this without Alejandro Balde, Jules Koundé, Frenkie de Jong and Andreas Christensen — a significant chunk of his first-choice defensive structure. The good news is that both Joan García and Eric García, who were forced off during the Newcastle game, have been cleared fit after medical assessments.
The expected lineup sees Joan García in goal, with Cancelo at right back, Araújo and Cubarsí as the centre-back pairing, and Gérard Martín at left back. Marc Bernal and Pedri hold midfield, with Raphinha, Dani Olmo and Yamal supporting Lewandowski in attack. Gavi is available from the bench following his injury comeback.
**Why Rayo cannot be dismissed**
Rayo have a formula against Barcelona and it works. High press, aggressive runs in behind the high defensive line, and a refusal to accept they have lost before kick-off. In the reverse fixture at Vallecas in August, they drew 1-1 and were arguably the better side for long periods. In their last six La Liga matches they are unbeaten. Jorge De Frutos has scored 10 league goals this season and is their primary attacking threat.
Nobel Mendy is suspended after his red card against Levante — a blow to their defensive transition work. But Pathé Ciss is a capable replacement in midfield, and Iñigo Pérez's side will be organised, energetic and difficult to break down.
This will not be seven goals. But Barcelona should have enough to get the job done — and that is all that matters today.
