The model gives Monza 1.79 expected goals to Sassuolo's 2.78. Sassuolo averaged 1.14 scored and 1.33 conceded across 21 away matches. It leans to a win for Sassuolo, with 1-3 at 7% and 2-3 at 6% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Espanyol de Barcelona 1.85 expected goals to Elche's 1.05. Espanyol de Barcelona averaged 1.18 scored and 1.23 conceded across 22 home matches on record. Elche averaged 1.05 scored and 1.95 conceded across 22 away matches. Last meeting on record: Elche 2-2 Espanyol de Barcelona. It leans to a win for Espanyol de Barcelona, with 1-0 at 10% and 2-0 at 9% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Brentford 2.28 expected goals to Chelsea's 1.49. Brentford averaged 1.76 scored and 1.05 conceded across 21 home matches on record. Chelsea averaged 1.73 scored and 1.73 conceded across 26 away matches. Chelsea have a net sale of about €280m in this window. Last meeting on record: Chelsea 2-0 Brentford. It leans to a win for Brentford, with 3-1 at 7% and 2-0 at 6% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Tottenham Hotspur 1.14 expected goals to Aston Villa's 1.21. Tottenham Hotspur averaged 1.50 scored and 1.25 conceded across 28 home matches on record. Aston Villa averaged 1.23 scored and 1.50 conceded across 22 away matches. Aston Villa have a net sale of about €84m in this window. Last meeting on record: Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham Hotspur. It leans to a win for Tottenham Hotspur, with 2-1 at 7% and 2-0 at 6% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Everton 2.24 expected goals to Ipswich Town's 1.34. Everton averaged 1.43 scored and 1.38 conceded across 21 home matches on record. Everton have a net sale of about €75m in this window. It leans to a win for Everton, with 3-1 at 7% and 2-0 at 7% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Brighton & Hove Albion 0.89 expected goals to Arsenal's 1.40. Brighton & Hove Albion averaged 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded across 21 home matches on record. Arsenal averaged 1.75 scored and 0.75 conceded across 32 away matches. Arsenal have a net spend of about €77m in this window. Last meeting on record: Brighton & Hove Albion 0-1 Arsenal. It leans to a win for Arsenal, with 0-2 at 10% and 1-2 at 9% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Manchester City 1.72 expected goals to Sunderland's 0.61. Manchester City averaged 2.19 scored and 0.77 conceded across 26 home matches on record. Sunderland averaged 0.90 scored and 1.48 conceded across 21 away matches. Manchester City have a net sale of about €106m in this window. Last meeting on record: Sunderland 0-0 Manchester City. It leans to a win for Manchester City, with 2-0 at 14% and 2-1 at 9% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Leeds United 2.28 expected goals to Crystal Palace's 0.87. Leeds United averaged 1.62 scored and 1.10 conceded across 21 home matches on record. Crystal Palace averaged 1.19 scored and 1.52 conceded across 21 away matches. Last meeting on record: Crystal Palace 0-0 Leeds United. It leans to a win for Leeds United, with 2-1 at 10% and 1-0 at 9% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Nottingham Forest 2.33 expected goals to Coventry City's 0.24. Nottingham Forest averaged 0.95 scored and 1.14 conceded across 21 home matches on record. It leans to a win for Nottingham Forest, with 1-0 at 18% and 3-0 at 16% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives CA Osasuna 1.37 expected goals to Rayo Vallecano de Madrid's 1.57. CA Osasuna averaged 1.45 scored and 1.23 conceded across 22 home matches on record. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid averaged 0.95 scored and 1.82 conceded across 22 away matches. Last meeting on record: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1-3 CA Osasuna. It leans to a win for CA Osasuna, with 1-0 at 7% and 2-0 at 5% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Athletic Club 1.52 expected goals to Deportivo Alavés's 1.15. Athletic Club averaged 1.26 scored and 1.26 conceded across 27 home matches on record. Deportivo Alavés averaged 1.00 scored and 1.62 conceded across 21 away matches. Last meeting on record: Deportivo Alavés 2-4 Athletic Club. It leans to a win for Athletic Club, with 2-1 at 9% and 2-0 at 8% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Celta de Vigo 1.88 expected goals to Real Racing Club de Santander's 1.39. Celta de Vigo averaged 1.41 scored and 1.50 conceded across 22 home matches on record. It leans to a win for Celta de Vigo, with 2-0 at 7% and 1-0 at 7% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Sevilla 1.11 expected goals to Barcelona's 2.27. Sevilla averaged 1.27 scored and 1.32 conceded across 22 home matches on record. Barcelona averaged 2.34 scored and 1.41 conceded across 29 away matches. Barcelona have a net spend of about €43m in this window. Last meeting on record: Barcelona 5-2 Sevilla. It leans to a win for Barcelona, with 0-2 at 9% and 1-3 at 7% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Bologna 1.30 expected goals to Torino's 1.12. Bologna averaged 1.00 scored and 1.24 conceded across 21 home matches on record. Torino averaged 0.95 scored and 1.76 conceded across 21 away matches. Last meeting on record: Torino 1-2 Bologna. It leans to a win for Bologna, with 2-1 at 8% and 2-0 at 8% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Udinese 1.27 expected goals to Cagliari's 1.19. Udinese averaged 0.95 scored and 1.14 conceded across 21 home matches on record. Cagliari averaged 1.00 scored and 1.48 conceded across 21 away matches. Last meeting on record: Cagliari 0-2 Udinese. It leans to a win for Udinese, with 2-1 at 8% and 2-0 at 7% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Roma 1.94 expected goals to Internazionale Milano's 1.36. Roma averaged 1.86 scored and 0.52 conceded across 21 home matches on record. Internazionale Milano averaged 1.97 scored and 1.10 conceded across 29 away matches. Last meeting on record: Internazionale Milano 5-2 Roma. It leans to a win for Roma, with 2-0 at 7% and 1-0 at 7% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Venezia 0.94 expected goals to Lazio's 2.63. Lazio averaged 0.81 scored and 0.76 conceded across 21 away matches. It leans to a win for Lazio, with 1-2 at 9% and 0-3 at 9% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Werder Bremen 1.33 expected goals to Augsburg's 1.60. Werder Bremen averaged 1.22 scored and 1.78 conceded across 18 home matches on record. Augsburg averaged 1.33 scored and 1.89 conceded across 18 away matches. Last meeting on record: Werder Bremen 1-3 Augsburg. It leans to a win for Augsburg, with 0-1 at 8% and 0-2 at 7% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Hamburger 1.37 expected goals to Köln's 1.57. Hamburger averaged 1.39 scored and 1.50 conceded across 18 home matches on record. Köln averaged 1.11 scored and 2.06 conceded across 18 away matches. Last meeting on record: Hamburger 1-1 Köln. It leans to a win for Köln, with 0-1 at 8% and 0-2 at 6% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.33 expected goals to FSV Mainz's 1.52. Borussia Mönchengladbach averaged 1.50 scored and 1.56 conceded across 18 home matches on record. FSV Mainz averaged 1.56 scored and 1.56 conceded across 18 away matches. Last meeting on record: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 FSV Mainz. It leans to a win for FSV Mainz, with 0-1 at 8% and 0-2 at 7% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Eintracht Frankfurt 1.86 expected goals to Freiburg's 2.08. Eintracht Frankfurt averaged 1.64 scored and 1.91 conceded across 22 home matches on record. Freiburg averaged 1.06 scored and 1.94 conceded across 18 away matches. Last meeting on record: Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 Freiburg. It leans to a win for Freiburg, with 1-3 at 5% and 2-3 at 5% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives VfB Stuttgart 1.90 expected goals to Borussia Dortmund's 1.73. VfB Stuttgart averaged 1.95 scored and 0.95 conceded across 19 home matches on record. Borussia Dortmund averaged 1.96 scored and 1.58 conceded across 24 away matches. Last meeting on record: VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund. It leans to a win for VfB Stuttgart, with 3-1 at 5% and 2-0 at 5% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Angers SCO 1.42 expected goals to Troyes's 1.09. Angers SCO averaged 1.00 scored and 1.26 conceded across 19 home matches on record. It leans to a win for Angers SCO, with 2-1 at 9% and 2-0 at 8% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Auxerre 1.51 expected goals to Stade Brestois's 1.60. Auxerre averaged 1.05 scored and 1.05 conceded across 19 home matches on record. Stade Brestois averaged 1.00 scored and 1.84 conceded across 19 away matches. Last meeting on record: Auxerre 3-0 Stade Brestois. It leans to a win for Stade Brestois, with 0-1 at 7% and 0-2 at 6% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Olympique Lyonnais 1.58 expected goals to Stade Rennais's 1.34. Olympique Lyonnais averaged 1.79 scored and 1.05 conceded across 19 home matches on record. Stade Rennais averaged 1.74 scored and 1.89 conceded across 19 away matches. Last meeting on record: Olympique Lyonnais 4-2 Stade Rennais. It leans to a win for Olympique Lyonnais, with 1-0 at 8% and 2-0 at 7% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Le Mans 1.57 expected goals to Lorient's 1.52. Lorient averaged 0.95 scored and 1.37 conceded across 19 away matches. It leans to a win for Le Mans, with 1-0 at 7% and 2-0 at 6% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Toulouse 1.21 expected goals to Le Havre's 0.89. Toulouse averaged 1.32 scored and 1.42 conceded across 19 home matches on record. Le Havre averaged 0.72 scored and 1.50 conceded across 18 away matches. Last meeting on record: Le Havre 2-1 Toulouse. It leans to a win for Toulouse, with 2-0 at 9% and 2-1 at 8% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Nice 0.49 expected goals to Lille OSC's 1.29. Nice averaged 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded across 20 home matches on record. Lille OSC averaged 1.63 scored and 1.05 conceded across 19 away matches. Lille OSC have a net sale of about €100m in this window. Last meeting on record: Lille OSC 0-0 Nice. It leans to a win for Lille OSC, with 0-2 at 14% and 1-2 at 7% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Paris FC 1.88 expected goals to Strasbourg Alsace's 1.32. Paris FC averaged 1.63 scored and 1.42 conceded across 19 home matches on record. Strasbourg Alsace averaged 1.79 scored and 1.79 conceded across 19 away matches. Last meeting on record: Strasbourg Alsace 0-0 Paris FC. It leans to a win for Paris FC, with 2-0 at 7% and 1-0 at 7% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Monaco 1.76 expected goals to Racing Club de Lens's 1.40. Monaco averaged 1.74 scored and 1.22 conceded across 23 home matches on record. Racing Club de Lens averaged 1.85 scored and 1.40 conceded across 20 away matches. Last meeting on record: Racing Club de Lens 2-3 Monaco. It leans to a win for Monaco, with 1-0 at 7% and 2-0 at 7% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Fiorentina 0.88 expected goals to Napoli's 1.79. Fiorentina averaged 1.05 scored and 1.24 conceded across 21 home matches on record. Napoli averaged 1.27 scored and 1.27 conceded across 26 away matches. Napoli have a net spend of about €50m in this window. Last meeting on record: Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina. It leans to a win for Napoli, with 0-2 at 11% and 1-2 at 10% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Parma 0.85 expected goals to Genoa's 0.82. Parma averaged 0.81 scored and 1.29 conceded across 21 home matches on record. Genoa averaged 0.95 scored and 1.30 conceded across 20 away matches. Last meeting on record: Parma 0-0 Genoa. It leans to a win for Genoa, with 0-2 at 6% and 1-2 at 5% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Frosinone 1.02 expected goals to Como's 1.82. Como averaged 1.68 scored and 0.77 conceded across 22 away matches. It leans to a win for Como, with 1-2 at 10% and 0-2 at 10% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Juventus 1.41 expected goals to Atalanta's 1.06. Juventus averaged 1.89 scored and 0.89 conceded across 28 home matches on record. Atalanta averaged 1.19 scored and 1.30 conceded across 27 away matches. Last meeting on record: Atalanta 0-1 Juventus. It leans to a win for Juventus, with 2-1 at 9% and 2-0 at 8% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Milan 1.46 expected goals to Lecce's 0.75. Milan averaged 1.35 scored and 1.05 conceded across 20 home matches on record. Lecce averaged 0.81 scored and 1.29 conceded across 21 away matches. Last meeting on record: Milan 1-0 Lecce. It leans to a win for Milan, with 2-0 at 12% and 2-1 at 9% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Getafe 0.97 expected goals to Málaga's 0.37. Getafe averaged 0.95 scored and 0.82 conceded across 22 home matches on record. It leans to a win for Getafe, with 2-0 at 12% and 2-1 at 5% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Club Atlético de Madrid 1.44 expected goals to Real Madrid's 1.75. Club Atlético de Madrid averaged 2.28 scored and 1.03 conceded across 32 home matches on record. Real Madrid averaged 1.93 scored and 1.30 conceded across 30 away matches. Real Madrid have a net spend of about €340m in this window. Last meeting on record: Real Madrid 3-2 Club Atlético de Madrid. It leans to a win for Real Madrid, with 0-1 at 7% and 0-2 at 6% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Villarreal 2.35 expected goals to Levante's 1.33. Villarreal averaged 2.23 scored and 1.38 conceded across 26 home matches on record. Levante averaged 0.95 scored and 1.64 conceded across 22 away matches. Last meeting on record: Villarreal 5-1 Levante. It leans to a win for Villarreal, with 3-1 at 7% and 2-0 at 7% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Deportivo La Coruña 1.39 expected goals to Real Betis Balompié's 1.41. Real Betis Balompié averaged 1.43 scored and 1.61 conceded across 23 away matches. It leans to a win for Real Betis Balompié, with 0-1 at 8% and 0-2 at 6% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Valencia 1.39 expected goals to Real Sociedad de Fútbol's 1.19. Valencia averaged 1.23 scored and 1.32 conceded across 22 home matches on record. Real Sociedad de Fútbol averaged 1.18 scored and 1.68 conceded across 22 away matches. Last meeting on record: Real Sociedad de Fútbol 3-4 Valencia. It leans to a win for Valencia, with 2-1 at 9% and 2-0 at 7% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Bournemouth 1.39 expected goals to Liverpool's 1.33. Bournemouth averaged 1.52 scored and 1.10 conceded across 21 home matches on record. Liverpool averaged 1.56 scored and 1.48 conceded across 27 away matches. Liverpool have a net spend of about €104m in this window. Last meeting on record: Bournemouth 3-2 Liverpool. It leans to a win for Liverpool, with 1-2 at 8% and 0-2 at 6% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Fulham 1.09 expected goals to Manchester United's 1.72. Fulham averaged 1.62 scored and 1.24 conceded across 21 home matches on record. Manchester United averaged 1.52 scored and 1.43 conceded across 21 away matches. Last meeting on record: Manchester United 3-2 Fulham. It leans to a win for Manchester United, with 1-2 at 10% and 0-2 at 9% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Bayer Leverkusen 2.40 expected goals to RB Leipzig's 1.24. Bayer Leverkusen averaged 2.04 scored and 1.20 conceded across 25 home matches on record. RB Leipzig averaged 1.47 scored and 1.79 conceded across 19 away matches. RB Leipzig have a net sale of about €280m in this window. Last meeting on record: Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 RB Leipzig. It leans to a win for Bayer Leverkusen, with 2-0 at 8% and 3-1 at 8% the next likeliest scores that way.

The model gives Olympique de Marseille 1.19 expected goals to Paris Saint-Germain's 1.97. Olympique de Marseille averaged 2.30 scored and 1.22 conceded across 23 home matches on record. Paris Saint-Germain averaged 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded across 27 away matches. Paris Saint-Germain have a net sale of about €89m in this window. Last meeting on record: Paris Saint-Germain 5-0 Olympique de Marseille. It leans to a win for Paris Saint-Germain, with 0-2 at 8% and 0-1 at 8% the next likeliest scores that way.